Can Mamdani beat Cuomo with New York’s ranked-choice voting?

By  Anthony Izaguirre | Associated Press – Additional reporting and editing by The Haitian Times

NEW YORK (AP) — New York City Democrats will decide Tuesday whether to reboot Andrew Cuomo’s political career, elevate liberal upstart Zohran Mamdani, or turn to a crowded field of lesser-known but maybe less-polarizing candidates in the party’s mayoral primary.

Their choice could say something about what kind of leader Democrats are looking for during President Donald Trump’s second term.

The vote takes place on a sweltering day about four years after Cuomo resigned as governor following a sexual harassment scandal. Yet the 67-year-old has been the favorite throughout the race, with his deep experience, nearly universal name recognition, strong political connections and juggernaut fundraising apparatus.

The party’s progressive wing, meanwhile, has coalesced behind Mamdani, a 33-year-old self-described democratic socialist. A relatively unknown state legislator when the contest began, Mamdani gained momentum by running a sharp campaign laser-focused on the city’s high cost of living and secured endorsements from two of the country’s foremost progressives, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Preliminary returns will be released after the polls close at 9 p.m. Tuesday, but a winner might not emerge for a week because of the city’s ranked choice voting system, which allows voters to list up to five candidates in order of preference. If a candidate is the first choice of a majority of voters, they win outright. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the tabulation of the rankings wouldn’t begin until July 1.

According to a final pre-election day poll that took into account early voting trends from Emerson College Polling, PIX11, and The Hill, the latter is a real possibility, with Mamdani having a leg up on Cuomo for the first time in Emerson’s polling. The survey conducted on June 18-20 among 833 likely voters shows Cuomo leading slightly at 35%, trailed closely by Mamdani at 32%. 

However, when ranked-choice voting is simulated, Mamdani pulls ahead in the eighth and final round of rank-choice calculations, winning 52% to Cuomo’s 48%. 

Mamdani’s rise has been striking—climbing from just 1% in January to second place—and he currently leads among early voters, younger voters, and those with college degrees. 

Cuomo maintains an edge among older, Black and Hispanic voters, as well as among women and those without a four-year degree. 

The primary winner will go on to face incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat who decided to run as an independent amid a public uproar over his indictment on corruption charges and the subsequent abandonment of the case by Trump’s Justice Department. Republican Curtis Sliwa, the founder of the Guardian Angels, will be on the ballot in the fall’s general election.

The mayoral primary’s two leading candidates — one a fresh-faced progressive and the other an older moderate — could be stand-ins for the larger Democratic Party’s ideological divide, though Cuomo’s scandal-scarred past adds a unique tinge to the narrative.

The rest of the pack has struggled to gain recognition in a race where nearly every candidate has cast themselves as the person best positioned to challenge Trump’s Republican agenda.

Comptroller Brad Lander, a liberal city government stalwart, made a splash last week when he was arrested after linking arms with a man federal agents were trying to detain at an immigration court in Manhattan. It was unclear if that episode was enough to jump-start a campaign that had been failing to pick up speed behind Lander’s wonkish vibe.

Among the other candidates are City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, state Sen. Zellnor Myrie, hedge fund executive Whitney Tilson and former city Comptroller Scott Stringer.

Mamdani’s energetic run has been hard not to notice.

His army of young hipster canvassers relentlessly knocked on doors throughout the city seeking support. Posters of his grinning mug were up on shop windows. You couldn’t get on social media without seeing one of his well-produced videos pitching his vision — free buses, free child care, new apartments, a higher minimum wage and more, paid for by new taxes on the rich. He would be the city’s first Indian-American and first Muslim mayor.

Cuomo and some other Democrats have cast Mamdani as unqualified. They say he doesn’t have the management chops to wrangle the city’s sprawling bureaucracy or handle crises. Critics have also taken aim at Mamdani’s support for Palestinian human rights.

In response, Mamdani has slammed Cuomo over his sexual harassment scandal and his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

In one heated debate exchange, Cuomo rattled off a long list of what he saw as Mamdani’s managerial shortcomings, arguing that his opponent, who has been in the state Assembly since 2021, has never dealt with Congress or unions and never overseen an infrastructure project. He added that Mamdani couldn’t be relied upon to go toe-to-toe with Trump.

Mamdani had a counter ready. “To Mr. Cuomo, I have never had to resign in disgrace,” he said.

Cuomo resigned in 2021 after a report commissioned by the state attorney general concluded that he had sexually harassed at least 11 women. He has always maintained that he didn’t intentionally harass the women, saying he had simply fallen behind what was considered appropriate workplace conduct.

During the campaign, he has become more aggressive in defending himself, framing the situation as a political hit job orchestrated by his enemies.

The fresh scandal at City Hall involving Mayor Eric Adams, though, gave Cuomo a path to end his exile.

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