Rising optimism among small and middle market business leaders suggests growth for New York

Business optimism is returning for small and midsize business leaders at the start of 2026, fueling confidence and growth plans. 

The 2026 Business Leaders Outlook survey, released in January by JPMorganChase reveals a turnaround from last June, when economic headwinds and uncertainty about shifting policies and tariffs caused some leaders to put their business plans on hold. 

Midsize companies, who often find themselves more exposed to geopolitical shifts and policy changes, experienced a significant dip in business and economic confidence in June of 2025. As they have become more comfortable with the complexities of today’s environment, we are seeing optimism rebounding in the middle market nationwide – an encouraging sign for growth, hiring, and innovation. Small businesses, meanwhile, maintained steady optimism throughout 2025, but they aren’t shielded from domestic concerns. Many cited inflation and wage pressures as the top challenges for 2026 and are taking steps to ensure their businesses are prepared for what’s ahead.

“Northeast leaders are signaling an expansion-oriented mindset, with plans for workforce growth and investment in new products and services,” said Matt Beardall, Northeast Segment Head, Commercial Banking, J.P. Morgan.

Overall, both small and midsize business leaders are feeling more confident to pursue growth opportunities, embrace emerging technologies and, in some cases, forge new strategic partnerships. That bodes well for entrepreneurs in New York. Here are a few other key findings from the Business Leaders Outlook about trends expected to drive activity in New York this year:

1. Optimism for the local economy is mixed. Sixty-one percent of New York City small business leaders are optimistic about the local economy, while New York middle market leaders feel slightly less optimistic (37%) about the local economy than the national average (44%).

2. Tariffs are impacting businesses. Over half (51%) of New York midsize business leaders say currently enacted tariffs have had a negative impact on their business, while 45% say tariff changes in 2026 would negatively impact their business. Tariffs are the second concern among New York middle market leaders, with 64% saying they have a negative impact to some degree on the cost of doing business.
   
3. New York City small businesses show a divergent hiring path. Forty percent intend to increase hiring, but a larger share (22%) intend to decrease hiring (vs. 14% nationwide and 10–14% in comparator cities).

4. Despite challenges, local leaders are bullish on their own enterprises. Though the overall outlook is mixed, 76% of New York City small businesses are optimistic about their own business, while 73% of New York middle market business owners and 74% of middle market companies in the Northeast are optimistic about their company’s performance. 

5. Adaption is the theme. For small business owners surveyed across the U.S., responding to continuing pressures is important in 2026. Building cash reserves (47%), renegotiating supplier terms (36%) and ramping up investments in marketing and technology are among the top priorities. In New York City, local small businesses increased use most in marketing and campaign management tools (70% in 2025), e-commerce platforms (58%), and LLMs and CRMs (both 57%).

6. Big plans are on the horizon. Sixty-one percent of Northeast middle market business leaders plan to introduce new products and services in 2026. While 42% are planning to increase headcount to some degree in 2026, and 75% expect increases in revenue and sales growth.

The bottom line

Rebounding optimism among U.S. business leaders at the start of the year is setting the stage for an active 2026. With business leaders looking to implement ambitious growth plans that position themselves for the future, momentum in New York could be beneficial future goals for leaders looking to launch, grow or scale their business this year. 

For informational/educational purposes only: Views and strategies described in this article or provided via links may not be appropriate for everyone and are not intended as specific advice/recommendation for any business. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries do not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The material is not intended to provide legal, tax, or financial advice or to indicate the availability or suitability of any JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. product or service. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions and consult the appropriate professional(s). Outlooks and past performance are not guarantees of future results. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates are not responsible for, and do not provide or endorse third party products, services, or other content.

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 © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. 

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