Class, messaging behind some immigrants’ shift toward GOP, experts say

Traditionally, naturalized immigrant Americans have voted with the Democratic Party for an array of reasons. Chief among them is that party’s openness to immigration policies that have allowed people into the U.S. from all over the globe, such as the Hart-Cellar Act / Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 passed under Democratic President London B. Johnson. However, the longer an immigrant group is present in the United States, the more likely some of its members are to break away from the political bloc, political scientists have said, with some even moving fully to the Republican Party. 

In this year’s presidential election, where even the smallest numbers can translate into make-or-break margins, it is worth exploring why the shift occurs. Dr. Sharon D. Wright Austin is among the scholars who explore such changes in electoral politics. In her 2018 book, “The Caribbeanization of Black Politics: Race, Group Consciousness, and Political Participation in America,” Wright Austin studied how Black immigrant groups influence political spheres once dominated by African Americans as they share the same communities. Her conclusions provide some insight into why Donald Trump’s Republican Party may appeal to some Black people and immigrants, including Haitians. 

According to Wright Austin, a University of Florida political science professor, these factors include some immigrants achieving comfortable lives, others forgetting the recent past and political messaging. 

Here’s how each factor may play a role. 

Moving up and forgetting barriers linked

Economic class makes a difference across all immigrant groups, not only among Black immigrants, Wright Austin said. That was clear for her as she watched the RNC bring onto the national stage numerous South Asian immigrants – Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley and Usha Chilukuri Vance, the wife of newly minted Republican Vice Presidential-nominee J.D. Vance.

“Many of the people who are talking about voting for Donald Trump are people who were able to get an education and are college educated. Sometimes they have professional degrees,” Wright Austin said. “They are the people who come here who have taken advantage of what they believe is the American Dream. You have to applaud them for their hard work and their ability to do that. 

“But that means that in many cases,” Wright Austin continued, “the longer Black ethnic [groups] have been in this country, they forget about the different barriers that they – especially for Haitians and Haitian immigrants – have had to deal with.” 

Barriers to Black immigration that Haitians have endured most often or severely. Among them, the wet foot-dry foot policy, Haitians being denied jobs, Haitians being barred from donating blood out of unfounded fears over HIV transmission, and Haitian youth being targeted by African Americans.

“A lot of the time, my students are completely unaware of any of that,” said Wright Austin, who teaches African American politics. “I think it is true that the longer an immigrant group spends in this country, the more they assimilate, and it’s not just true with Black immigrants.” 

Effective political messaging

The Trump campaign’s messaging seems to be working in his favor, several experts interviewed last week said.

“Perceptions matter in politics, and the candidates have to persuade voters to think a certain way,” Wright Austin said. “It’s not so much whether or not something is true. A political candidate just has to convince voters to believe that it’s true. Even if that person is downright lying, as long as the voters believe it,  then the voters are going to vote for the person that they believe is going to serve their interest better.”

Signs that Trump’s untrue claims about the economy was working emerged even before the RNC’s big pageant, assassination attempt, court cases siding with Trump and the presidential debate. A 2023 KFF-Los Angeles Times Survey of Immigrants found that a majority of immigrants do not feel represented by either party. Another KFF study of Black women found that participants said higher household expenses were their top concern. 

Audrey Kearney, an author of the immigrants survey, said in both scenarios, one party is betting on those groups not to vote for their usual party pick, the Democrats. The strategy is not even so much that those groups will vote Republican, but that they will not vote Democratic so the margins are smaller. 

Gilbert Saint-Jean, a researcher with Haiti Renewal Alliance, concurs. He said that in battleground states with Haitian populations – such as Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania – tight differences matter.

“There’s qualitative data to show that among Haitian Americans there’s that openness, especially for those born here,” Saint-Jean said. “U.S.-born Haitians who are predominantly Black are, to some degree, voting for Democratic candidates. But maybe one to two percent less will vote for the Republican or other candidate. When it gets to be a super tight election, it does matter.  

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