Caraïbes : alerte à une chaleur extrême et à la sécheresse avec le retour d’El Niño

Les institutions climatiques régionales alertent sur des conditions « plus chaudes et plus sèches » attendues aux Caraïbes en 2026-2027, sous l’effet du phénomène El Niño. Le Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology et le University of the West Indies Climate Studies Group Mona appellent États et acteurs économiques à se préparer à des risques multiples.

Selon le climatologue Cedric Van Meerbeeck, la baisse des précipitations et la hausse des températures pourraient affecter l’agriculture, les ressources en eau et accroître les risques sanitaires liés à la chaleur. Des sécheresses marquées, déjà observées lors d’épisodes passés, pourraient se reproduire, notamment dans les Caraïbes orientales.

Les experts évoquent un « régime multi-aléas », combinant sécheresse, vagues de chaleur et impacts marins, avec des effets en cascade sur les économies. Agriculture, énergie et tourisme figurent parmi les secteurs exposés, tandis que les perturbations du commerce régional restent possibles.

Malgré une activité cyclonique potentiellement réduite, les spécialistes rappellent qu’un seul événement extrême peut suffire à provoquer des dégâts majeurs. Les prévisions doivent gagner en précision à partir de mai, avec de nouvelles analyses attendues lors du forum climatique régional CariCOF.

Caribbean Urged to Prepare for Hotter, Drier Conditions as El Niño Develops  

Barbados, April 21, 2026 – The Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH)  and the University of the West Indies Climate Studies Group Mona (UWI CSGM) are  urging governments, businesses, farmers, and households to prepare for potentially  severe climate extremes as a developing El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier  conditions across the region in 2026 and 2027.  

Dr. Cedric Van Meerbeeck, Climatologist at CIMH, warns that this El Niño event is likely  to bring periods of reduced rainfall and increased humid heat, which can affect water  availability and agriculture, and increase the likelihood of heat stress and dry conditions.  Without adequate planning, the socio-economic impacts from cascading and  compounding hazards will be significant.  

Historically, El Niño is linked to severe droughts—such as those in 2009–2010 and 2014– 2016—and also increases the risk of extreme heat, wildfires, and marine heatwaves that  can trigger coral bleaching. Similar combined impacts were also observed during the  record heat years of 2010, 2023, and 2024. Areas already experiencing drought,  particularly in the Eastern Caribbean, may see slower recovery of water resources during  the upcoming wet season, which could begin as early as May 2026. 

Although El Niño is typically associated with quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons, Dr. Van  Meerbeeck stresses that risk remains, as a single hurricane or intense rainfall event can  cause significant damage, as demonstrated by Hurricane Andrew in The Bahamas (1992)  and Tropical Storm Erika in Dominica (2015).  

“What we are seeing in the forecasts is the emergence of a potential multi-hazard  regime—where heat, drought, and marine impacts can occur together and reinforce each  other,” said Professor Michael Taylor, Co-Director of UWI CSGM. “Our research has long  pointed to these compound extremes as a serious threat to life and livelihoods in the  Caribbean. With advance warning of a looming multi-hazard threat, preparedness is  imperative—requiring coordinated and integrated action across and within sectors and a  strong regional approach.”

This emerging pattern reflects a shift toward more complex, interconnected climate risks, affecting key sectors such as agriculture, water resources management, energy, and  health. Reduced rainfall combined with elevated temperatures can lead to agricultural  losses, affecting food security and rural livelihoods. Health risks may also increase,  particularly in relation to water quality, vector-borne diseases, and heat-related illnesses.  Water and energy systems may come under strain, as demand for cooling increases,  especially in countries that rely on hydroelectric power or freshwater-cooled energy  production.  

Wider economic impacts linked to El Niño may also be felt, particularly in tourism,  fisheries, and maritime transport. Given the region’s reliance on imports, global  disruptions associated with the El Niño can affect trade, logistics, and the procurement of  goods and services. Governments are being urged to assess risks to supply chains,  transportation networks, and key trade routes. For example, recent drought events have  disrupted operations at the Panama Canal, a major transit point for goods entering the  region and ports along the east coast of the USA. These disruptions can negatively affect  regional food security and increase the cost of living.  

As El Niño forecasts typically become more reliable from May onward, Dr. Van  Meerbeeck urges stakeholders to stay updated on the evolving El Niño and its potential  implications, noting that regional experts will continue monitoring conditions and providing timely updates.  

He encourages decision-makers and the public to follow updates from the next Caribbean  Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) organized by the CIMH, scheduled for the week of  May 24. At the Forum regional climate experts and personnel from National  Meteorological and Hydrological Services will engage with national, regional, and  international stakeholders from climate-sensitive sectors to provide guidance ahead of  the upcoming wet and hurricane season. Stakeholders are also encouraged to follow  updates from their National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for country-specific  information. For more information, please visit http://rcc.cimh.edu.bb or contact  aapplewhaite@cimh.edu.bb. 

Emphasizing the importance of early awareness and preparedness, Principal of the  CIMH, Dr. David Farrell highlights the role of timely, actionable climate information in  supporting decision-making across the region, noting that “Proactive measures are vital  for mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events on climate sensitive sectors,  communities, and national economies.”  

Dr. Farrell also underscores the CIMH’s commitment to enhancing regional resilience,  noting that the Institute has strategically expanded its services to include a sharper focus  on water, marine systems, earth observation, and climate, to support and advance all  relevant early warning information services. He further notes that in recent years the  CIMH has invested significant effort in examining how weather and climate related  hazards such as El Niño produce cascading sectoral impacts that lead to socio-economic  consequences across the region. This work helps to risk-inform the region’s climate  adaptation programmes, which are key to building the region’s resilience to climate  change and increasing climate variability. He adds that strengthening early warning systems and access to clear, actionable  information remains key to supporting preparedness across the region, and thanks  regional governments and development partners for their support of CIMH’s programmes  aimed at improving early warning systems.

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