Trump’s Miami-Dade win underscores Florida’s shift to deep red

KISSIMMEE, Fla. — Former President, now President-elect Donald J. Trump’s latest victory in Florida, marked by a decisive win among Miami-Dade County voters, has underscored a shift toward solid Republican ground. Former President Barack Obama was the last Democrat to win Florida in 2008 and 2012. Since then, the southern state, long regarded as a crucial swing state in presidential elections, has now become increasingly out of reach for Democrats, as Trump’s enduring appeal has turned it more reliably red.

Haitian-heavy Florida now seems almost unrecognizable from the state that delivered George W. Bush the presidency in 2000 by just 537 votes. In recent years, it has dramatically shifted to the right, growing the gap between the two parties. 

In fact, Trump’s success in the state over Hillary Clinton in 2016 was just 1.2%. Despite losing the general race, he grew the GOP’s margin by 3.3% over President Joe Biden in 2020. In this year’s race, he defeated Vice President Kamala Harris by over 11%, cementing Florida’s status as a Republican stronghold.

The vote margin between the two parties in Florida has stayed within 5% in the past seven elections.

With Miami-Dade County voting in favor of Trump by over 55% to 43%, the political dynamics in the state appear fundamentally changed. The county’s swing toward Trump is particularly notable, as it has traditionally been a Democratic stronghold. It has consistently voted blue for decades, including toward Obama in 2012, Clinton in 2016, and Biden in 2020.

Political analysts point to a combination of factors contributing to Trump’s continued success in Florida. His message on issues like immigration and economic development has resonated with a broad base of voters, including Hispanic communities in Miami-Dade, who traditionally supported Democratic candidates but have warmed to Trump’s policies. 

These policies, particularly in conservative Cuban American and Venezuelan American communities, have found a receptive audience in a state where Latin American voters are nowadays a substantial part of the electorate.

Trump has benefited from a combination of factors 

The Edison Research/NEP exit poll survey of 22,509 voters below shows how Trump built his big margin in the Florida victory.

The former president’s over 55% win in Miami-Dade, a county historically considered a Democratic stronghold, further highlights his influence in reshaping the political map of Florida.

Political experts at 270 To Win, a nonpartisan group, partly explain why.

“Influxes of Cubans, retirees, service workers to the theme park economy booming near Orlando and other groups resulted in a state much more diversified – both economically and politically – than many of its southern brethren,” the group said.

For some observers, the impact of this migration cannot be understated, as it brought in about 100,000 new Republican registered voters in 2024. However, considering that Florida had over eight million voters, the sheer numbers were not enough to swing the election decisively in favor of Republicans, with Trump winning over 1.4 million votes against Harris.

Many factors have contributed to the dethroning of Florida as the nation’s largest swing state, experts say.

Some of the most visible factors leading to Florida’s current political makeup:

• More Republicans are moving to the state than Democrats.
• A huge GOP voter registration advantage.
• A national political realignment is shifting more non-college-educated voters toward Republican candidates.
• A growing Hispanic population is trending more conservative.
• A weak Florida Democratic Party.
• Prominent GOP figures have put their imprint on the state.

Latino votes shift and gain among Black voters

The question now facing Democrats is how, or if, they can ever recapture the state that has long been considered pivotal to their success in presidential elections.

Historically, Latino and Black voters in Florida leaned Democratic. Still, recent trends have shown a significant shift towards the Republican Party. 

In the 2022 mid-term elections, for instance, the state’s Latino voters overwhelmingly supported Republican candidates.

This shift can be attributed to the diversity of the Latino population, which includes a sizable Cuban voting bloc and growing communities from Venezuela and Colombia. Contrasting Southwest and Midwest states that are predominantly of Mexican origin, the makeup of Florida’s Latino/Hispanic voting bloc is unique in political culture, increasingly aligning with the Republican Party.

Republicans effectively targeted these groups through messaging that highlighted their opposition to socialist policies, drawing parallels between Democratic candidates and the socialist leaders of these countries.

“Influxes of Cubans, retirees, service workers to the theme park economy booming near Orlando and other groups resulted in a state much more diversified – both economically and politically – than many of its southern brethren.”

270 To Win, A Nonpartisan Group

Another GOP gain is with the state’s Black voters. Although this demographic bloc has still overwhelmingly voted Democrats, the Republican party is making significant inroads with it. Trump appears to be the beneficiary of that shift.

According to an exit poll by the Associated Press, Trump won 20% of the Black vote this time. He had won 13% of the community’s vote in 2020 and 8% in 2016, the highest level of support by Black voters for any Republican since George W. Bush in 2000.

In Florida, the Republican presidential ticket won at least 15% of the Black Vote, an increase from 10% in 2020.

In addition to Black voters being seemingly frustrated that they are receiving little from the Democratic Party in return for what they feel is long-term, steadfast support, many political scientists think the party’s legacy with the civil rights movement has kept it popular with Black voters. However, they argue that younger Black voters do not have those same civil rights legacy attachments.

Adolphus Belk, a political scientist at Winthrop University in South Carolina, agrees.

“I think a certain generation of Black voters don’t have the direct experience with the civil rights movement or the knowledge of those things because to them that’s not memory – it’s history,” Belk told Aljazeera.

“They’re coming in without an understanding of these historical contours and turns, limitations, opportunities. And those frustrations are being made clear in this rising percentage of Black voters that’s taking a different look at the Republican Party in general and are exploring some curiosities with Trump despite his racial baggage,” the professor added.

Democrats’ abandonment amid failure of crucial ballot measures 

“There are patterns that have been more favorable towards the Republicans in Florida, said Kevin Wagner, Political Science professor at Florida Atlantic University.

However, others also think that Democratic leaders’ efforts to bolster the party’s base in South Florida were insufficient to counteract Trump’s growing influence. 

Voters in the state have consistently rewarded Trump’s Florida-based campaign efforts, where his frequent appearances and rallies have built a loyal following. As Trump solidifies his connection to Florida, his impact has rippled through the state’s political landscape, leaving Democrats scrambling to retain influence.

The Republican influence also has negatively impacted the results of ballot measures fiercely supported by Democrats, such as Constitutional Amendment 3 to legalize marijuana and Amendment 4 to protect abortion rights. Neither one of these two measures received the minimum 60% support needed to pass.

The measure that would have amended the state constitution to guarantee the right to abortion up until fetal viability or when necessary to protect the health of the pregnant person failed, with about 57% of Floridians voting in favor and nearly 43% voting against. 

Florida is among the states that have banned abortion beyond six weeks of pregnancy, which is before many people know they’re pregnant. 

The restriction carries some exceptions, such as when the life of the pregnant person is at risk. With the proposed amendment’s failure, the state’s existing six-week ban will remain in place.

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Trump’s Miami-Dade win underscores Florida’s shift to deep red was first posted on November 7, 2024 at 1:55 pm.